FORUMS
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| 06-14-2012, 10:57 PM | #1013 | |
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Major
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If you are trading with a 7 figure portfolio, more power to you, but you are in the minority. Being up 63% is impressive too, but you and I both know that isn't sustainable, the norm, or anything close. This business requires to preserve capital and live another day. I simply don't take enough risk to be up nearly that much, honestly. I tip my hat to you for the month. Yes, I have 6 figure trades as well. My point was (and you know this because of your portfolio) that the amount of capital invested is directly related to your risk tolerance...unless you are trading with someone else's money. Sure percentages are an equalizer, but they can be misleading if someone has a $1,000 portfolio versus a $1m. Anyway, don't mind me. You are a smart guy and clearly are doing something right. Keep It up. Maybe I'm just bitter I sold aapl too early or that I still have a significant long position in financials. |
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| 06-15-2012, 01:49 AM | #1014 | |
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Private First Class
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I did understand your point, I just read it the wrong way. I thought you were discouraging small traders from trading/contributing, because that entrepeneurial spirit to learn finances is something I love fanning into flames. Understandably, I'm frustrated at the moment trying to decipher this see-saw action from the last week. Hrmm. Right now it looks like the bulls may be making a push upwards to break 1335, and maybe the markets will rally to 1350-1380 before pulling back (like R0wr suggested). I almost thought we'd lost momentum after SPX futures hit 0.5% retracement level and got rejected from 1346 after the spanish bailout failure. Any ideas you have on direction? With a large investment portfolio yourself, you should contribute more! I still think if we had to breakout to the upside, the spanish bailout and futures moves were the best time for it. Why re-try almost a week later? Possible backtest before fallout?
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| 06-15-2012, 03:00 AM | #1015 |
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Major
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I am just going to ignore the post by baymowe335, not worth my time..
And Vanity I agree, I am not seeing any signs of the market headed for another rally, If so should be interesting if we get past the 1334.31 level of resistance! Still not positive about holding anything through the weekend feels like a bit of a gamble, but we'll see I might open up a small position (puts). By the way I started a small site to keep track of my trading thoughts (just for me really to have everything in one place). Anyway just started working on it this week check it out tradelocus.com
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2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. | |
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| 06-15-2012, 07:16 AM | #1016 | |
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Major
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I have a more Warren Buffett style (although I'm not able to move the market when I speak or have nearly enough money to buy Kraft and just enjoy the dividend). That said, I have no idea where the market goes ST. I do know 90% of the funds out there are bull funds, because the bulls will always win given enough time. I am a bull for this reason, but when the market seems tenuous, I get out. I don't short. I mentioned my 85% cash position because this market seems too iffy at the moment. I am waiting for an opportunity to begin building positions. Having too much cash is also stressful, as you know. It pushes you to get into something too quickly at times, even if the time isn't right. I encourage small investors to get started somewhere. We all did at some point. |
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| 06-15-2012, 09:50 AM | #1017 | |
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Captain
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When you talk to anyone about their investments (online or in person) you generally only hear about their good trades. I was guilty of this behavior somewhat when I was younger and made riskier trades and was thrilled when they actually paid off. In hindsight it was essentially gambling. I had no idea how markets really worked (although I can't say I fully understand this even now but I'm trying!) and just really treated it like a casino. So yeah, I share some of your views about this thread and people talking about their investments in general but I also do find value in what people talk about since I can get a feel of general market sentiment from a wide variety of people. You can watch CNBC, talk with people in your office (I guess I'm lucky that I work in finance?), talk with friends, and also check online. As for me personally my trading is all model based so I guess reading this thread and talking to random people is quite useless for me but it's still fun to see what people are thinking nonetheless.
Anyway, I agree that the size of your portfolio does actually influence your trading behavior. Just comparing what I used to do to what I do now is starkly different because of the lessons learned and change in capital base. While I was somewhat of a "gambler" when I was younger, today everything is prototyped and tested in MATLAB/Java and similarly executed systematically. If it means anything to you my sharpe ratio is about 1.7 on a 32% 1 year return which I think is alright. It might be not so great for some but again, the capital base I feel is "sizeable" enough to not warrant riskier types of strategies. I guess everyone is different - size of their portfolio, types of strategies employed, etc. Long story short just soak up all the info you can and decide how to use it. =) Quote:
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| 06-15-2012, 01:05 PM | #1018 |
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Registered
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BayMoWe335 makes some interesting points but most have been addressed. Continuing on with the thread, is there an inverse H&S in the forming? Many say that there is, and on the 60 minute chart, it also sort of looks like a half staff, which leads me to believe that there is more up ahead. Vanity, where is the big drop we're looking for at? Is it still out of the question? Or is a Greece pull out of the Euro nearing?
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| 06-15-2012, 01:46 PM | #1019 | |
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Private First Class
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We have a 0.5 retracement level at 1341 that is within a stones throw right now. In the futures market on Monday we smashed through that on bailout hopes for Spain, reached 1346, then it reversed hard. Perhaps right now the equity markets are back testing this resistance level, and we sell off today and begin selling off next week. Theoretically, we could stop right here at the 0.5 level, since futures markets did that already. The big drop down to 1265-1215 isn't off the table, that is definitely going to happen (look at the June rally upwards, compared to market internals. They are diverging, and market internals and breadth are deteriorating). What is important now is figuring out whether we top out here at 0.5 retracement (1341) or make a push higher to 0.618 (1358) or even the whole thing (but no new top). I'm out of my shorts at the moment and just day trading dips here and there. What about your thoughts? As for the inverse H&S, I've also noticed a H&S develop on VIX. Which would favor more upside. But then treasuries are saying this rally is false. Time will tell. Waters are murky.
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![]() Last edited by Vanity; 06-15-2012 at 01:59 PM. |
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| 06-15-2012, 02:41 PM | #1020 | |
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Major
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| 06-15-2012, 03:12 PM | #1022 | |
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Major
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Good article just posted on yahoo finance:
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| 06-15-2012, 04:19 PM | #1023 |
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Private First Class
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I was having a discussion about this earlier in the week with someone else. I believed that the risk associated with a Greek exit was contagion onto Spain and Italy, and not the actual exit of Greece itself that would be the cause for panic. The elections were supposed to, in the event Syriza won, push Spain and Italy off the cliff and cause panic.
But that's already happened, we've already dropped 1000 points on the Dow from Spain's rising yields, and now they've hit 7%. Check. What I'm concerned for next week is Italy, as I see that as the next reason to go down, not Greece elections. This week we got a prelude to what would happen with Italy, when it's bonds hit 6%. Remember when Spain did that? This is the contagion from Greece already at work. The upside into the predictions currently is that markets will not be concerned about Italy's yields till early next week or sometime next week. But when that is realized, we will be headed down. They already tried to bailout Spain, and no avail. Try that with Italy and see how far you can go. It will be Italy's yields that bring us down, IMO, and not Greece elections. How far up this thing goes, it could be as high as from now, 1342-1370. I'm going to keep adding into shorts all the way up. That's my strategy for now. I'm not even going to play the upside, as I and no one else I know and talk to, has a clear target for an upside. But the downside is very evidently coming soon. Safe trading everyone!
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| 06-16-2012, 09:37 PM | #1024 |
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Metal cutter
Drives: 135i 08 6MT Sed Red Met. Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ontario Canada
Posts: 97
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Thanks for all the posts. I do appreciate the insight. I wish I have more to contribute, but I'm just still a rookie.
I just wanted to share a video that offers insight and some reality of what it takes to be successful in trading to other newbies like myself. I know she is an anomaly, and her gains grabs headlines, but I was more fascinated to hear about the hard work, discipline and how she learned from her past errors. Her demeanor was also pleasant as she doesn't fit the stereotypical role of a trader. Last edited by slamako; 06-16-2012 at 09:39 PM. Reason: YouTube embed fail :( |
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| 06-17-2012, 06:04 PM | #1025 |
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Major
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Looks like futures hit resistance at 1347 and are pulling back now. I highly doubt Greece is going to be able to form a government before they go broke. I think Bill Gross said it best you don't fix an alcoholic by giving them more drinks. Also, if the Italian yields continue to rise as Spain's did, it should be a fun ride down!
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| 06-18-2012, 08:41 AM | #1026 |
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Private First Class
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Dow is working off oversold levels at th open, but it appears that the trend of definitely down for today. It wouldn't be surprising to see this thing go into the positive first before running back down (if it does today). Keep that in mind for the beginners.
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| 06-18-2012, 09:48 PM | #1028 | ||
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Private First Class
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I reccomend practicing in a virtual account. Experience is the most important thing. Fumble through your mistakes. Nothing makes you adapt and learn faster than learning how NOT to do "that again" and lose cash.
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| 06-19-2012, 01:22 AM | #1029 |
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Lieutenant
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Stay bullish guys...dont let the European disasters distract you...this mkt will grind out new highs soon enough...we will climb a wall of worry once again.
Guys, do yourselves a big favor...plot 1 and 2 year chart with SPX, then overlay the chart with the VIX...when VIX gets below 15(think int term top) you unwind your longs and start to accumulate some shorts...when VIX spikes above 25-ish you start to re-accumulate longs...when bull mkt finally peaks I believe the VIX will be near 10 level(think long term top)...if it ever reaches this level, you better run from your long positions as the bull is likely over. The answer is likely in the charts! |
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| 06-19-2012, 05:42 AM | #1030 | |
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Registered
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Last edited by r0wr; 06-19-2012 at 05:49 AM. |
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| 06-19-2012, 12:46 PM | #1032 | |
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Private First Class
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It will be interesting to see if the fed does anything tomorrow, or if we just end up range bound between 1270-1360. UPDATE: 2:38 pm ET. We are getting a reversal here. We hit the 0.618 retracement level perfectly. The spx has since retraced downwards to, currently, 1357-1358. i went full short recently believing that this level could not be taken out without QE3 or a combination of Twist 2. But these two things are pretty much off the table in my mind. This is an election year. Bernanke needs SOLID downside in this economy otherwise his actions will be ambiguous or even synonymously political, instead of being purely economics-based. Considering how we are only 3-4% down for the year, and yields are already suppressed so low, it's a fat chance IMO. But the 0.618 is key. If it breaks, 100% retracement back to 1420 (potentially). As of now however, we are getting a back-down from those levels. Gold is also NOT confirming any monetary stimulus tomorrow. Mini-Update: 3:00 pm ET. Also, intraday MACD is showing divergence and not confirming the move up.
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![]() Last edited by Vanity; 06-19-2012 at 02:00 PM. |
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| 06-19-2012, 02:35 PM | #1033 | |
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Major
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SPX is also very overbought on stochastic on the daily chart. EUR/USD is also very overbought on stochastic on the daily (also slowly beginning to form down trend in MACD). SPX also is just oscillating around its 50MA on its 5 min chart and is right above its 50MA on its daily chart. I honestly would have expected a bigger jump after breaking the 50MA but we failed ti get passed 1364, which is a critical point IMO, for 1364 is level 3 resistance (highest/strongest level) using Pivot Points. I honestly do no believe this has much more room to go higher. Mact, Vanity, Rowr what are your thoughts? I dont see anything from a technical stand point that should make us go much higher, am i missing something?
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2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |Last edited by Hisam135i; 06-20-2012 at 01:21 AM. |
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| 06-19-2012, 03:04 PM | #1034 |
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New Member
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Nowhere near as advanced as you guys are, but bought a small amount of SPXU towards the close today. I don't see them announcing a QE3 or if they do announce something I feel it wont be as much as the market wants.
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