Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis - Page 40 - BMW 3-Series Forum (F30 / F32)

Hisam135i · 05-07-2012, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0wr

Any bears gonna short the rebound in the next couple of days?

I've had put options on ge since last week and spxu

Hisam135i · 05-08-2012, 06:14 PM

thoughts anyone?

Mr. Liu · 05-08-2012, 07:53 PM

whoa wtf theres a trading thread on here??

Anyways, i've been holding short aapl since 610, covered today at 561. Reshorted EOD at 570. Spanked that trade hard since earnings.

Long UVXY commons, long weekly VXX 16 puts sprinkled with some 17s.

Some SPY 133/135 put spreads rolling out into june/july.

50% cash.

IMO we have seen the top for this year. All indices broke 50ma/ april lows supports. Specifically on SPY i am looking at the march gap, then if that breaks on higher volume theres the Feb gap at 132.

Might get a small bounce tomorrow on low volume to work off oversold levels, even though RSI isn't showing too much.

See ya!

EvosM3 · 05-08-2012, 09:54 PM

Did anyone notice that at one point the SPY was just .42 away from touching the 100 day SMA?

I was prepared for the EOD bounce and went long towards the bottom.

Vanity · 05-11-2012, 01:21 AM

Top is in. Confirmed to have come in for most indexes in month of March when we were discussing it. We might get one more rally to really push things in May, but thereafter watch out for summer. A lot of things have happened these last two weeks that have actually changed the game, cannot be short term to mid term bullish anymore. Trade accordingly.

Mact you still here?

r0wr · 05-11-2012, 03:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

Top is in. Confirmed to have come in for most indexes in month of March when we were discussing it. We might get one more rally to really push things in May, but thereafter watch out for summer. A lot of things have happened these last two weeks that have actually changed the game, cannot be short term to mid term bullish anymore. Trade accordingly.

Mact you still here?

I'm buying tomorrow's dip but will be getting rid as soon as I see our next push.

Vanity · 05-11-2012, 03:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0wr

I'm buying tomorrow's dip but will be getting rid as soon as I see our next push.

Agreed. I believe every rally is to be shorted into now. Either cusp of major correction or new bear market of -20% or more.

r0wr · 05-15-2012, 05:49 PM

Bears have been doing work and I'm still holding SPXU and HDGE for my short positions in the market. I believe that that we will see a little rebound soon that will fail and we will continue going down. Be careful when longing this market as the trend is obviously down.

EvosM3 · 05-15-2012, 06:15 PM

I bought some weekly apple puts to hedge my long position. Man am I in the shitter for buying at such high prices.

Vanity · 05-16-2012, 01:55 AM

Been holding TVIX since 5.84

Hold onto your panties, men. Someone bring back that guy who said our predictions were wrong. Bring him before the Bears.

Bols · 05-16-2012, 01:52 PM

Any predictions on the Grexit in Europe? Some hint to currency printers as de la rue in UK but doesn't the Greek National bank have it's own print capacity for dachma's ?

EvosM3 · 05-16-2012, 02:17 PM

Has apple finally hit a bottom?

turbosc297 · 05-16-2012, 03:26 PM

So how high do you guys suspect TVIX will rise in near months?

Vanity · 05-16-2012, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turbosc297

So how high do you guys suspect TVIX will rise in near months?

No one can predict the move magnitude for an ETN which is 2x leveraged to follow a derivative based on the volatility of price actions over multiple days extended into the future.

But it will be a handsome return on the way to the bottom. Selling TVIX will be based more on when VIX tops and the market bottoms, than what price TVIX reaches as that is subject to 2x compounding, tracking error, and premiums. What price target do I think it will easily reach though? At least 20. After that, the sky is the limit (quite seriously). The past performance of TVIX in a crash will be in the hundreds of percentage ROI. Take a glance at last years action.

r0wr · 05-16-2012, 11:24 PM

TVIX isn't an ETN which is supposed to be held for long periods of time. I'm sure Vanity knows what he's dealing with but to those who see TVIX as a money maker, believe me when I tell you it is not unless you really know it's movements. Tread carefully.

Vanity · 05-17-2012, 01:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0wr

TVIX isn't an ETN which is supposed to be held for long periods of time. I'm sure Vanity knows what he's dealing with but to those who see TVIX as a money maker, believe me when I tell you it is not unless you really know it's movements. Tread carefully.

The reason for this is because of volatile futures rollovers and their premiums. That's why these things enter contango and decay. They only ever are safe to hold near backwardation where they perform well (like last year). We are however, approaching backwardation now. We will see if one more rally can be mustered.

Never hold TVIX through contango, therein lies the danger to a portfolio.

r0wr · 05-17-2012, 01:56 AM

On some bullish talks, who likes lnkd and z? lnkd is forming a symmetrical triangle. both stocks may be good momentum pick ups for the next rally

Hisam135i · 05-17-2012, 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0wr

On some bullish talks, who likes lnkd and z? lnkd is forming a symmetrical triangle. both stocks may be good momentum pick ups for the next rally

Hmm, I'll take a look at it tomorrow morning and let you know my take! Btw I love trading this time of year

makes having finals not as bad haha

Vanity · 05-17-2012, 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Hmm, I'll take a look at it tomorrow morning and let you know my take! Btw I love trading this time of year

makes having finals not as bad haha

Hope you do well with them!

Hisam135i · 05-17-2012, 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Hmm, I'll take a look at it tomorrow morning and let you know my take! Btw I love trading this time of year

makes having finals not as bad haha

Hope you do well with them!

Thanks! I've aced 4 of them with perfect scores, only a calculus one left tomorrow!

Hisam135i · 05-17-2012, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r0wr

On some bullish talks, who likes lnkd and z? lnkd is forming a symmetrical triangle. both stocks may be good momentum pick ups for the next rally

Looks like the breakout went downward but its is pretty close to its support so we might be seeing a bounce from the 108 range

Edit: looks like breakout went the other way haha not to surprising though based on the overall market conditions

Vanity · 05-17-2012, 11:23 AM

Deciding whether or not to liquidate my shorts today and go long for a potentially strong ST rally.

Update: sold my TVIX @ 9.43 from 5.84.
Potential for a short term rally is very possible. Didn't want to take the chance, so I'm taking a breather and watching what happens with the FB IPO tmr.

05-08-2012, 06:14 PM	#860
Hisam135i Major Drives: 335i Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Irvine, CA Posts: 1,097 iTrader: (0)	thoughts anyone? __________________ 2008 Monaco Blue 335i \| Terracotta \| Premium \| Auto \| Comfort Access \| Matte-black Grills \| Carbon Fiber Splitters \| 20% Tint \| 1- point E9x Picture Game \| Staggered 19' VMR V701 \| Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. \|

05-11-2012, 01:21 AM	#863
Vanity Private First Class Drives: BMW E90 LCI Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: BC, Canada Posts: 109 iTrader: (0)	Top is in. Confirmed to have come in for most indexes in month of March when we were discussing it. We might get one more rally to really push things in May, but thereafter watch out for summer. A lot of things have happened these last two weeks that have actually changed the game, cannot be short term to mid term bullish anymore. Trade accordingly. Mact you still here? __________________

05-16-2012, 01:55 AM	#868
Vanity Private First Class Drives: BMW E90 LCI Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: BC, Canada Posts: 109 iTrader: (0)	Been holding TVIX since 5.84 Hold onto your panties, men. Someone bring back that guy who said our predictions were wrong. Bring him before the Bears. __________________

05-17-2012, 11:23 AM	#880
Vanity Private First Class Drives: BMW E90 LCI Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: BC, Canada Posts: 109 iTrader: (0)	Deciding whether or not to liquidate my shorts today and go long for a potentially strong ST rally. Update: sold my TVIX @ 9.43 from 5.84. Potential for a short term rally is very possible. Didn't want to take the chance, so I'm taking a breather and watching what happens with the FB IPO tmr. __________________ Last edited by Vanity; 05-17-2012 at 02:54 PM.

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Email this Page	Search this Thread: Advanced Search

05-08-2012, 07:53 PM	#861
Mr. Liu Private Drives: 2011 AW/FR E90 M3 Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 98 iTrader: (0)	whoa wtf theres a trading thread on here?? Anyways, i've been holding short aapl since 610, covered today at 561. Reshorted EOD at 570. Spanked that trade hard since earnings. Long UVXY commons, long weekly VXX 16 puts sprinkled with some 17s. Some SPY 133/135 put spreads rolling out into june/july. 50% cash. IMO we have seen the top for this year. All indices broke 50ma/ april lows supports. Specifically on SPY i am looking at the march gap, then if that breaks on higher volume theres the Feb gap at 132. Might get a small bounce tomorrow on low volume to work off oversold levels, even though RSI isn't showing too much. See ya!

05-08-2012, 09:54 PM	#862
EvosM3 Banned Drives: WTB E90 M3 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: America Posts: 169 iTrader: (0)	Did anyone notice that at one point the SPY was just .42 away from touching the 100 day SMA? I was prepared for the EOD bounce and went long towards the bottom.

05-15-2012, 05:49 PM	#866
r0wr Registered Drives: Beater Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 4 iTrader: (0)	Bears have been doing work and I'm still holding SPXU and HDGE for my short positions in the market. I believe that that we will see a little rebound soon that will fail and we will continue going down. Be careful when longing this market as the trend is obviously down.

05-15-2012, 06:15 PM	#867
EvosM3 Banned Drives: WTB E90 M3 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: America Posts: 169 iTrader: (0)	I bought some weekly apple puts to hedge my long position. Man am I in the shitter for buying at such high prices.

05-16-2012, 01:52 PM	#869
Bols Lieutenant Drives: E90d SG Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Antwerp Posts: 474 iTrader: (0)	Any predictions on the Grexit in Europe? Some hint to currency printers as de la rue in UK but doesn't the Greek National bank have it's own print capacity for dachma's ?

05-16-2012, 02:17 PM	#870
EvosM3 Banned Drives: WTB E90 M3 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: America Posts: 169 iTrader: (0)	Has apple finally hit a bottom?

05-16-2012, 03:26 PM	#871
turbosc297 New Member Drives: '06 330xi Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: St Paul, MN Posts: 28 iTrader: (0)	So how high do you guys suspect TVIX will rise in near months?

05-16-2012, 11:24 PM	#873
r0wr Registered Drives: Beater Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 4 iTrader: (0)	TVIX isn't an ETN which is supposed to be held for long periods of time. I'm sure Vanity knows what he's dealing with but to those who see TVIX as a money maker, believe me when I tell you it is not unless you really know it's movements. Tread carefully.

05-17-2012, 01:56 AM	#875
r0wr Registered Drives: Beater Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 4 iTrader: (0)	On some bullish talks, who likes lnkd and z? lnkd is forming a symmetrical triangle. both stocks may be good momentum pick ups for the next rally