[r0wr]

I don't think we'll break the high for the year.. but that's just me.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

I don't think we'll break the high for the year.. but that's just me.

How far do you think the rally will go Rowr?

[r0wr]

I'm not sure but I want spx to close above its 06/19 high at 1363 to confirm 1-2-3 trend change.

http://thepatternsite.com/123tc.html

I hope tomorrow closes in green because that'll convince me we'll wipe all those gains within the week. If we end in red and consolidate, I say we (da bears!) are in trouble.

[Vanity]

10yr treasury yields saw an inflow of 172 basis points. Lower than where they were on Friday, 1.585 compared to today's 1.57. Down from 1.65%.

Smart money giving up on this rally already??

[r0wr]

NYMO has spiked way too high but as of now, I still think we go higher.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

NYMO has spiked way too high but as of now, I still think we go higher.

I agree there isn't enough selling today to get through support levels (current support at 1363)

[Vanity]

Went full short today in the morning. Staying close to the exits if things go up, but USD is rebounding hard, so is bond market. After this next correction to around 1215-1265, I will probably be going full long for a while. But we shall see what market conditions are like at those times.

Update: Rowr and Sam, I want you guys to pay attention to the USD index. Currently sitting at 82.82 after todays enormous move upwards. If it breaks and holds 83.00, the USD will have ended its month-long consolidation from the June 1st highs and will be resuming a bullish upwards movement. Should it break 83, it will soar well beyond 86.00 and make a new high for the year (this is, btw, extremely horrible for earnings season about to come out). The last time the USD index did this, it soared non-stop from 77 to 83.5, no pause. This, in addition to the markets now being overbought, would make it ripe for a correction.

Pay attention to the VIX charts too. VIX made a bottom at 13.66, then a subsequent higher bottom, and now another higher bottom. While I believe the major crash scenario has been delayed for a while, a short term abrupt correction is on the table. Afterwards, reasoning that the correction is severe enough, stimulus would (if it materialzed) take us to new highs. We shall see! Happy trading.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Went full short today in the morning. Staying close to the exits if things go up, but USD is rebounding hard, so is bond market. After this next correction to around 1215-1265, I will probably be going full long for a while. But we shall see what market conditions are like at those times.

Update: Rowr and Sam, I want you guys to pay attention to the USD index. Currently sitting at 82.82 after todays enormous move upwards. If it breaks and holds 83.00, the USD will have ended its month-long consolidation from the June 1st highs and will be resuming a bullish upwards movement. Should it break 83, it will soar well beyond 86.00 and make a new high for the year (this is, btw, extremely horrible for earnings season about to come out). The last time the USD index did this, it soared non-stop from 77 to 83.5, no pause. This, in addition to the markets now being overbought, would make it ripe for a correction.

Pay attention to the VIX charts too. VIX made a bottom at 13.66, then a subsequent higher bottom, and now another higher bottom. While I believe the major crash scenario has been delayed for a while, a short term abrupt correction is on the table. Afterwards, reasoning that the correction is severe enough, stimulus would (if it materialzed) take us to new highs. We shall see! Happy trading.

Very cool I've been looking at the same thing, looks like we're approaching 83 but not enough momentum yet hopefully we shall break through today

Edit: looks like we made it through!!!

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Very cool I've been looking at the same thing, looks like we're approaching 83 but not enough momentum yet hopefully we shall break through today

Edit: looks like we made it through!!!

Yes! We did. However, now it is about whether or not the USD will hold this gain, or break below and then retry for it again next week.

The shorts I initiated yesterday turned out to be a good decision. DOW was down as much as...... -190 today! Holding no positions ATM, might decide to do something in the last 2 hours left of trading.

But the volume today is so poor from the July 4th celebrations. Hardly any trading going on today. What the risks are now, is whether or not earnings next week is going to be good. We already saw bad ISM numbers, the sharpest decline in several years. Manufacturing is down, services struggling, so that tells me Alcoa will be biased to under-perform on Monday. However that last transportation bill passed in congress worries me a little, search it up. They changed interest rate calculations so on "paper" there is a potential for instant earnings boost. I don't know how much this will factor in though. We shall see.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Yes! We did. However, now it is about whether or not the USD will hold this gain, or break below and then retry for it again next week.

The shorts I initiated yesterday turned out to be a good decision. DOW was down as much as...... -190 today! Holding no positions ATM, might decide to do something in the last 2 hours left of trading.

But the volume today is so poor from the July 4th celebrations. Hardly any trading going on today. What the risks are now, is whether or not earnings next week is going to be good. We already saw bad ISM numbers, the sharpest decline in several years. Manufacturing is down, services struggling, so that tells me Alcoa will be biased to under-perform on Monday. However that last transportation bill passed in congress worries me a little, search it up. They changed interest rate calculations so on "paper" there is a potential for instant earnings boost. I don't know how much this will factor in though. We shall see.

I looked into that and looks like you were correct alcoa came in at 6 cents a share beating estimates of 5 cents

[Vanity]

Going short last Thursday was a pretty awesome call! Caught it right at the IT top. Down about 3.5% from there now, but I wonder how much it has left in it.

[Vanity]

Sam, the USD is right at the resistance of its 2012 high. Broke 83.50 today and got as high as 83.61, but camelback a bit at the end. Let's see if tomorrow is catalyst enough for a significant break. If not, long would be the way to go.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Sam, the USD is right at the resistance of its 2012 high. Broke 83.50 today and got as high as 83.61, but camelback a bit at the end. Let's see if tomorrow is catalyst enough for a significant break. If not, long would be the way to go.

I dont think the euro is going to fall much more if you pull up the eur/usd daily chart for 1 year, you will see it's pretty much bottomed out. Once it rebounds it should bring the market a bit higher. Only reason i see the market further falling would be due to stochastic and macd headed downward. But there doesn't seem to be enough selling to get through the 50 DMA that we keep bouncing off of.

Check out this article on Marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/enf/rss.asp?guid=%7B923b5062-cac7-11e1-85c4-002128049ad6%7D


Looks like I'm going to have to take a nice loss with my bac options, I have 600 contracts going to expire next week. What do you think sell and take a loss or wait a bit? my price paid is .67..

I expected it to rebound a bit today due to stochastic being so low. On the daily, it looks like it's going to keep heading downward (MACD downtrend). Just hope it falls enough to not take to much of a loss. Only thing worrying me is there earning coming out on the 18th which are expected to do well.

Sorry for any typos or not being to clear in my writing, on my phone lol

[fatpanda]

Interesting thread guys.

Im daytrading FX mostly myself on EURUSD & AUDUSD.

SNP500 now on the bottom edge of its rising bear wedge on the daily... MACD RSI & stochastic all negative at the mo, but u never know...

i was cash long at 1320ish & have not done anything so far. Looking to add at 1200-1300 if it goes there for long only.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

I dont think the euro is going to fall much more if you pull up the eur/usd daily chart for 1 year, you will see it's pretty much bottomed out. Once it rebounds it should bring the market a bit higher. Only reason i see the market further falling would be due to stochastic and macd headed downward. But there doesn't seem to be enough selling to get through the 50 DMA that we keep bouncing off of.

Check out this article on Marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/enf/rss.a...02128049ad6%7D

Looks like I'm going to have to take a nice loss with my bac options, I have 600 contracts going to expire next week. What do you think sell and take a loss or wait a bit? my price paid is .67..

I expected it to rebound a bit today due to stochastic being so low. On the daily, it looks like it's going to keep heading downward (MACD downtrend). Just hope it falls enough to not take to much of a loss. Only thing worrying me is there earning coming out on the 18th which are expected to do well.

Sorry for any typos or not being to clear in my writing, on my phone lol

I'm expecting US GDP and Corporate Earnings to take us down, Sam. Q1 GDP was 1.9%, but you remember that the figure was largely based on excessive inventories. Well, that new ISM number that came out last week was the sharpest decline since 911 for New Orders. Meaning, inventories aren't being cleared out and replaced. That means the lowered expectations for 1.7% US GDP Q2 is a bit ahead of itself. Should be much closer to around 1%, considering Inventories were half, if not more than, of Q1 GDP. Big market shocker! Also, that ISM also points to lower profits. Bullish USD also means less money being brought back to corporate balance sheets. And considering we are at a year's high for USD, we should start to see some lower earnings. The Euro may very well be bottoming, but I still think the target around 1.10 - 1.20 would be appropriate for the currency given the backdrop of Europe.

As for your BAC options, were you long or short with them? Because BAC did rebound upwards today of about ~2%. I'm not sure how it will perform on it's earnings, but also ask yourself about the headline risk coming from JPM this week. Either tomorrow or Friday they're coming out with the total sum of that trading loss. Barclays is also getting hammered from LIBOR. Banking sector has been getting a lot of headline risk lately, whether or how that plays into ST BAC price action is not my specialty as I havent traded financial vectors for a while.

Originally Posted by fatpanda

Interesting thread guys.

Im daytrading FX mostly myself on EURUSD & AUDUSD.

SNP500 now on the bottom edge of its rising bear wedge on the daily... MACD RSI & stochastic all negative at the mo, but u never know...

i was cash long at 1320ish & have not done anything so far. Looking to add at 1200-1300 if it goes there for long only.

Hi there Whats your opinion on the EUR and USD that Sam and I are currently talking about?

[fatpanda]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Hi there Whats your opinion on the EUR and USD that Sam and I are currently talking about?

Hi, 1.19-1.20 will b strong support as its a multi year support/resistance line... thk there has to be some kind of grexit, fixit etc to push below that, as ECB rate already nearing zero...

[Vanity]

So yesterday I sold UVXY for a profit at 9.05, then seconds after it tumbled to 8.25 where I picked it up at 8.26. Bam, this morning the ETF opens up to $9.00. Nice profit was taken in the morning. Cameback to it at the end of the trading session and what did UVXY do? Jumped from 8.03 to as high as 8.49 in 3 minutes into the close! Shockingly quick upside. Holding it now for tomorrow and we shall see how next week does. Sure feels like something big is around the corner, really does.

DJIA and SPX both broke down trend support lines, USD is now above 83.54 and made a new high, EURO is heavily depressed, and the bond markets my goodness! Looks like Fourth of July fireworks will be coming around again to celebrate. How are you guys doing? Sam and Rowr and everyone else?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

So yesterday I sold UVXY for a profit at 9.05, then seconds after it tumbled to 8.25 where I picked it up at 8.26. Bam, this morning the ETF opens up to $9.00. Nice profit was taken in the morning. Cameback to it at the end of the trading session and what did UVXY do? Jumped from 8.03 to as high as 8.49 in 3 minutes into the close! Shockingly quick upside. Holding it now for tomorrow and we shall see how next week does. Sure feels like something big is around the corner, really does.

DJIA and SPX both broke down trend support lines, USD is now above 83.54 and made a new high, EURO is heavily depressed, and the bond markets my goodness! Looks like Fourth of July fireworks will be coming around again to celebrate. How are you guys doing? Sam and Rowr and everyone else?

Glad to see you made some profits and very well made back the majority of my money

Also, BAC closed beneath it's 20,50, ad 200 MA's on it's 15min chart which is a good sign for how tomorrow should go! Hopefully JPM doesn't do to well and we see the financials continue to drop as they did today.

Also, USD index reached 83.83 today before pulling back! Not to shabby! And agreed the Euro is heavily depressed makes me curious to know how much more we can fall without something large (exit) occurring.

MACD as well as stochastic still headed downward for the overall markets. So, we should continue to fall from here!

[fatpanda]

Hi guys, quick question on homebuilders n property: is it the right time to buy property now or better to just trade XHB? Thanks!

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by fatpanda

Hi guys, quick question on homebuilders n property: is it the right time to buy property now or better to just trade XHB? Thanks!

Home data is good, there is tangible recovery, however the market is soon to be flooded with bulks of foreclosed homes. You will have to do more research to figure out the pricing risks in that. It will most definitely decrease housing sales (as there is more supply but same demand), but that will need to be sustained for a few months (6-12 months, potentially) for prices to drop more. It also depends on the property and location.


Now, today's market rally is a hot potatoe! Ouch! I do, however, believe the rally run up to the 1375-1400 region is completed already with the SPX logging 1374 last Thursday. Instead of a continued rally, this most likely appears to be 1) a fake out rally, or 2) a dead cat bounce.

Next week should see more downside.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Home data is good, there is tangible recovery, however the market is soon to be flooded with bulks of foreclosed homes. You will have to do more research to figure out the pricing risks in that. It will most definitely decrease housing sales (as there is more supply but same demand), but that will need to be sustained for a few months (6-12 months, potentially) for prices to drop more. It also depends on the property and location.


Now, today's market rally is a hot potatoe! Ouch! I do, however, believe the rally run up to the 1375-1400 region is completed already with the SPX logging 1374 last Thursday. Instead of a continued rally, this most likely appears to be 1) a fake out rally, or 2) a dead cat bounce.

Next week should see more downside.

Let's hope so I got a nice hit today, it was a very low volume rally which tells me there was a lot of short covering. Are you still holding that UVXY?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Let's hope so I got a nice hit today, it was a very low volume rally which tells me there was a lot of short covering. Are you still holding that UVXY?

Did you recoupe with your BAC options after today? Yeah, I took a hit on UVXY so it took out my gains from Thursday.